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2006: Like it already happened

Remember the days before the blogosphere, when you actually had to wait for a year to start to find out what was going to happen? Sadly, those days are dead; replaced by a seemingly-infinite annual pile of next-year predictions.

Since us blogosphere dwellers can’t make the Predictions lists go away, Blogebrity decided to address the problem with the de facto pop culture treatment for media overload….the MASH-UP. The result is a teeming orgy of Nostradamus impersonators, covering topics ranging from A-listers to the big business of Google, Yahoo and Web 2.0.

So proceed at your own caution. Don’t blame us if the onslaught of predictions after the jump causes you to lapse into 2001-style vision of beams of light streaking by your face.

SPOILER ALERT: This list may or may not reveal everything that happens during 2006. Please don’t give us any guff for ruining the ending.

On the A-list…

Another blog search engine will
release a list of top 100 bloggers. Every blogger on the list will blog the
news in the form of: “Wow, I’m honored to have made it onto the top 100 list”
with a link back to the list maintainer’s blog. The list maintainer will in
return blog: “I’m honored to see that the list has been covered by such a high-profile
blogger” with a link back to the winner’s blog. The link incest will continue
for weeks until it has propelled the list maintainer himself into the top 100,
at which point the list will be declared a sham and the blogosphere will erupt
in outrage.

Blake Ross, Ten
predictions for the new year

Each member of the
so-called A-List will continue to increase the people who follow them.
But they will  each become less important, as the relentless growth of the
blogosphere outgrows their readerships, giving them influence over smaller
percentages of the total.
– Shel Israel, Predictions
for 2006

Scoble will appear on Oprah. His book
on corporate blogging will top all the best seller lists, his royalties will
eclipse his Microsoft salary, but he’ll stay there, because it’s in his blood.
Guy Kawasaki bleeds in six colors; in his heart Scoble wants to know where you want
to go today. Scoble’s next book, for which he will receive a $2 million
advance, will be a collaboration with Douglas
Coupland
entitled Blogserfs, about the blogging community at Microsoft.
Shel Israel will collaborate on a book with Vint Cerf about the downfall of Google.
– Dave Winer, 2006
Predictions

Gawker will
hit 20 blogs and get bought by Newscorp–Nick
Denton
will keep Fleshbot and retire
for the third time before spinning the Fleshbot into an ipod video service
claiming all the while that "there’s no business in it."
– Jason Calacanis,
My
Predictions for 2006

30 of the 50 blog networks
will fizzle out and/or die. Only one or two (other than Gawker) will break 20M pages a month. The blog
network space is just way too crowded, and if you can’t go big at this point
you’re gonna have a real hard time doing a *real* network (say 20 blogs or
more). Now, you’ll do just fine if you stay focused on a narrow niche that you
can own.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

Jason
Calacanis
will stay at AOL though Easter 2006, and then will resign to
spend more time with his family. They are good people, but Jason is an
entrepreneur, and AOL is a really big BigCo. After leaving, he’ll continue to
blog. Engadget will become a Time-Warner print publication. They’ll
briefly use Buzz Bruggeman
as a stand-in for Calacanis, and then Chris
Pirillo
. None of them will have the charisma that Calacanis had. Pirillo
will leave AOL to sub for Adam Curry on Sirius, who will take more and more
time off from his podcast, and Pirillo’s ratings will eclipse the Podfather’s,
who will retire to invent the next media revolution, in obscurity, all by
himself.
– Dave Winer, 2006
Predictions

On Blogging Apps…

SixApart’s servers will
melt down in the first two weeks of the new year, and many times after that in
2006. WordPress.com will implement a one-click import of a TypePad site, just
enter your username and password and click Submit. Come back in a few hours and
your whole site will be there. Under tremendous pressure from users, SixApart
will implement a one-click redirect of your old URL to the new site.
– Dave Winer, 2006
Predictions

A brand-new web publishing
application will launch, take on MovableType and WordPress, and will be
successful. WordPress will continue it’s rise, and will eventually be used on
all major weblogs that used to use MovableType.
– Mike Rundle, 2006 Predictions

On Blog (RSS) Readers…

Personal
Media Aggregators
, branded and distributed to specific communities of
interest will provide the means to share, collect, edit and republish content
both within that network as well as to other related ones. While newspapers and
magazines have been the first adopters of these future content delivery and
distribution containers, other markets as commercial music, sports and even
politics will find great marketing and communication value in them.  
– Robin Good, 2006
Predictions

Half of the indie RSS
readers will shut down, go out of business, or just stagnate as the major
portals take over this space.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

On Blog Advertising…

A new weblog advertising
model and platform is introduced, but not by any of the current players (WIN, FM Pub, Gawker, etc.) It will take on BlogAds and
AdBrite and beat both at their own game.
– Mike Rundle, 2006 Predictions

Advertising
on blogs
will grow rapidly in the immediate future. Unfortunately the
market still lacks effective tools and services that allow self-servicing of
ads on blogs. Blogads, the undisputed
market leader has long been lagging behind the need to provide much broader
stats ad information on its inventory of blogs, easier ways for advertisers and
identify relevant blogs for their campaigns, and prviding end publishers with
an effective and fully functional user interface. That makes me think that if
there is someone awake out there, with enough money and resources to match and
improve upon Blogads clever idea, it would find thousands of good blogs and
advertisers ready to support it.  
– Robin
Good, 2006
Predictions

Google
Adsense for Podcasts and/or Video will debut in Q2/Q3 of 2006–Yahoo and
Microsoft will follow shortly after that.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

On Web 2.0

If there is a terroristattack in the US and/or if oil prices shoot up again the slow down above will turn into a very
serious recession. Folks will stop trying to build companies and start looking
for a paycheck–Web 2.0 meme dies.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

"Web 2.0" will
make the cover of Time Magazine, and thus its moment in the sun will have
passed. However, the story that drives "Web 2.0" will only
strengthen, and folks will cast about for the next best name for the phenomenon.
 
– John Battelle, Predictions 2006

On what 2006 will look
and feel like…

Designs will soften, with
more rounded corners, pastel colours and hinted boxes. Drop shadows and
gradients will remain, but in a much subtler form to avoid visual clutter. 2006
will also be a year of transparency, with a profusion of fade effects and the PNG becoming the rightful heir to the image crown.
– Andy Budd,
Web
Design & Development Trends for 2006

Dampening — These
technologies go by a lot of names, but in general, dampening is the softening
of a user interface through gradual transition instead of immediate state
changes. The demand for dampening reflects the front-end focus that is being
rediscovered in web applications, but it can require server-side changes in
order to enable some effects. The best-marketed example of dampening is the yellow fade technique,
but overall, user interface elements will be sliding and collapsing instead of
simply disappearing.
– Anil Dash, Web Development
Trends for 2006

The colors
#FH84JF, #QW9D9R, and #0P0VBN will not be used by anyone, anywhere on the web.
– Airbag, 2006

On Google…

Google will
stumble, some might say badly, but it will be significant. How? My money is on
its second or third major deal – something on the order of the recent AOL deal.
It may well be a loss (perceived or otherwise) in the Google Book Search case.
Or it might be the privacy issue. This is not to say the company is going to
fail, or the stock, for that matter. Just that it will face a major test in
2006 that it won’t pass with flying colors.
– John Battelle, Predictions 2006

Google’s
stock will take it’s first significant hit (> 15% drop) at some point during
the year, but not because of their earnings but rather some outside factor
(think advertising slow down, terrorist attack in the US, tech bubble bursting,
etc). Google’s stock will end the year basically flat (+/-10%) while their
earnings soar.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

The limits
to what Google can do become apparent by the fall—e.g., they do not wipe out
entire established sectors of media and/or advertising.
– Jon Fine
(Businessweek), 2006:
A Media New Year

Google will make a deal
with the Time-Warner movie companies, and start movies.google.com for on-demand
distribution over the Internet. Google will learn to live with DRM. Their
answer to iTunes will involve loose-coupled relationships with content
companies, and a new product called Google Money, basically their version of
Paypal with a twist, they will also invent a new currency called The Google,
which trades against the dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Many small
countries in Africa, Latin America and south Asia adopt the Google as their national currency. The Google money website, money.google.com, will list the current Google stock price expressed in
googles, of course. They will stop reporting sales and earnings, instead
reporting Gross National Product and trade surpluses and deficits. When all
this rolls out, Google’s share price crashes, and takes the real estate market
in Santa Clara County with it. All of a sudden Dan
Gillmor can afford a mansion in Atherton on his teacher’s salary at
UC-Berkeley. He becomes Mike Arrington’s neighbor and starts a new subsidiary
of TechCrunch.
– Dave Winer, 2006
Predictions

Having
written an app for everything already, Google will unveil an API
to their cafeteria allowing bloggers to choose what employees will eat at
lunchtime — Lutefisk will go ranked number 1 for 47 weeks straight.  
– Airbag, 2006

On Apple…

iTunes will begin to get the speed
wobbles as the music industry decides it wants to control its distribution just
like in the good old days.
– John Battelle, Predictions 2006

Pricing for iTunes Music Store songs
will change based on the popularity of the song. Some songs might go for $.29
while new hits will rise to $1.99. To appease customers, the album price will
only raise a bit.
– Mike Rundle, 2006 Predictions

Apple releases iPod-inspired devices
for the home.  
– Om Malik, Apple 2006

iPhone, the real thing comes to
market sometime in September 2006 time frame.  
– Om Malik, Apple 2006

Apple will ship two
generations of iPods. The first new generation, released in April, will have a
satellite receiver built-in. The second will have a low-power FM transmitter
built-in.
– Dave Winer, 2006
Predictions

On 37signals…

37signals will come out with 3-4 new web
applications, effectively doubling their current revenues but only expanding
their user base by 25% since current 37s customers are more likely to use
future 37s products. Jason will hire 3 new Ruby on Rails gurus, and every
budding RoR programmer will dream of working for the shop that started their
career. He will get even more offers to sell the company, but he’ll keep
turning them down. 
– Mike Rundle, 2006 Predictions

37
Signals, tired of the web, will convert into an adult easy listening station:
37.7 WSGL.
– Airbag, 2006

On Yahoo!…

Yahoo will stop moving on
new companies, and will work to integrate their new holdings (Flickr,
Del.icio.us) into their existing services. Yahoo Photos will go the way of the
dodo.
– Mike Rundle, 2006 Predictions

On Microsoft…

Microsoft will gain five
points of search share, at least. But…
Vista will launch, and its much anticipated
and feared desktop search integration will be viewed as anemic. The whisper as
to why? Fear of the DOJ….  
– John Battelle,
Predictions 2006

We will see the death of IE5.x and the birth of a new, improved Internet Explorer in
the shape of IE7. With improved standards support, numerous
bug fixes and native PNG transparency, IE7 will hopefully make all our jobs a lot easier.
– Andy Budd,
Web
Design & Development Trends for 2006

On CNET…

DIGG will be bought by CNET.  

Mike Rundle, 2006
Predictions
& Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

CNET will be bought by
Yahoo or Fox Interactive/Newscorp.
- Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

All the rest…

This is the year that video on the
web will become very popular. Tons of new online video services, tools,
portable media devices, and new talent will rapidly appear on the Internet
scene. All the ingredients that would allow small and medium-sized online
publishers to adopt and leverage video publishing are now in place. The only
challenge remains for most to find the extra talent and time to make this
possible.  
– Robin Good, 2006
Predictions

…As the studios dance to
Wal-Mart’s tune, the window between the theatrical release and the DVD release
can be expected to further shrink, if not disappear entirely. As a result, more
and more people will choose to wait for the DVD instead of going to the
theatre. The resulting loss of audience will then further speed the death spiral, which will eventually
drive many theaters into bankruptcy.
– Edward Jay Epstein, Hollywood’s New Year

Tivo and NetFlix will merge.
 
– John Battelle, Predictions 2006

Metblogs and Gothamist will both raise venture or seed
capital.
– Jason Calacanis, My
Predictions for 2006

The RIAA will be granted its long-awaited patent on the concept of suing your own customers and promptly sue
the MPAA for violating it. Buoyed by this success, the RIAA announces its
intentions to patent the act of granting patents and threatens to “sue the
patent office out of existence” if it is granted.
– Blake
Ross, Ten
predictions for the new year

Cheezy Poofs and Coke will
be declared heart-healthy by firms in Plano, TX< and Atlanta, GA, and the media will not
question it one bit.
– ackthpt (Slashdot reader), Predictions

Maer Roshan will generate more
headlines than his magazine ever printed. Again.
– David Hauslaib, 2006: A Media New
Year

Internext Las Vegas 2006
will be a huge flop. In my opinion, AVN’s decision to schedule the show at the
same time the International Consumer Electronics Show is in town was an
ill-conceived attempt at making Internext look busier than it really is. Room
shortages, inflated rates, lack of transportation, and unbearable crowds make
Internext an unattractive destination for early 2006.

Dr. Bill, 2006 Adult Industry
Forecasts
.

Phew, we made it
through alive. If all this 2006
predicting has you feeling left out, simply visit the Dotcom
Prediction Generator
and let Web 2.0 do all the predicting for you.

This entry was posted by on Wednesday, December 28th, 2005 at 9:18 pm and is filed under Aggregators, Anil Dash, Chris Pirillo, Dave Winer, David Hauslaib, Del.icio.us, Federated Media, Feeds, Flickr, Gawker Media, Google, Gothamist LLC, Jason Calacanis, John Battelle, Nick Denton, Om Malik, Podcasting, Robert Scoble, Shel Israel, Web 2.0, Weblogs, Inc., Wordpress, Yahoo. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

3 Comments so far

  1. Most of us don’t like risk and uncertainty. That’s too bad, because there’s no shortage of either …

    Richard Edelman Resolves to take risks in 2006

    CODA: In 2006, anybody who is somebody will immerse her/himself in the COLD RIVER ;-)

    The dream of two brothers — one a potato farmer, the other a brain surgeon — has become reality

    Cold River, the only thing that flows faster than the bullets… Fluid Memoir: the Spirit of Freedom

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